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Far from the boring rematch that had many Americans tuning out politics, the 2024 presidential election has had wild twists and scary turns.
Nobody expected President Joe Biden’s campaign to implode in less than a month, from the shock of his performance at CNN’s debate in late June to his decision to step aside in the race in late July. Democrats went from literally freaking out about his candidacy to a new excitement about Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.
Nobody expected an assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, an event that unified Republicans around him and has many in his party showing a sort of divine reverence for his near-death experience.
So we don’t knowspecificallywhat will happen in thesprint toElection Day on November 5, or what could come after, when the country’s unique Electoral College process gets going. But we do have some idea of what to expect:
August: Nominating Harris, picking a VP and a convention in Chicago
Harris earned enough votes from Democratic delegates to win the party’s nomination in a virtual roll call August 2, a day after voting began and weeks before its convention. The early nomination process was a backstop maneuver to ward against ballot changes.
Harris will also need to pick a running mate. Look for that to occur soon, according to CNN’s Jeff Zeleny, and not right before the convention, as frequently occurs.
In late August, Democrats will convene in Chicago for their convention. Expect the most incredible reception for Biden. Democrats have pivoted from worrying over his election prospects to lionizing him as a hero.
Early in the month, Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, turned 40. He’d be the third-youngest vice president in US history and the first millennial in nationwide elected office if the Republican ticket wins. With Biden out of the race, Vance is on the ticket with the oldest major-party nominee in history with Trump, a baby boomer.
September: Debates, anyone? A Trump sentencing?
Biden and Trump had agreed to a second debate, hosted by ABC News, to occur on September 10. But with Biden out of the race, Trump has suggested he might not take part in a debate sponsored by ABC. Instead, the Trump campaign suggested a debate on Fox News, and that network has suggested September 17.
Both sides seem eager to debate, so look for details to emerge.
The first early voting will also get underway in September. North Carolina is the first state to send mail-in ballots, on September 6, but other states will follow suit in the weeks after.
Back in school and back to work, many Americans may start to pay more attention to the election in September. There will also be some touchstone moments in the cultural zeitgeist, such as when “Saturday Night Live” premiers at the end of the month with Maya Rudolph returning as Harris – and we find out who will play Vance.
Trump also faces sentencing for his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments before the 2016 election. That September 18 date could slip as the court reacts to new immunity granted to presidents by the Supreme Court.
October: Voting is well under way
Election Day isn’t until November 5, but most states allow some kind of early voting, either by mail or in person, and that process will kick into overdrive in October.
Most Americans, nearly 70%, voted early or by mail in 2020, according to census figures, although that figure was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The campaigns will be focused on getting out the vote in the few key battleground states they think are up for grabs. In 2020, Biden won five states that Trump won in 2016. Those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – could again be the focus in 2024 when Harris, who turns 60 in October, takes on Trump.
November: Election Day and beyond
US law requires federal elections to take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This year, that’s November 5.
People who don’t vote early will hit their local voting location. Polls will close at different times around the country. Due to the rise of voting by mail, if key states are close, like they were in 2020, we probably won’t know the winner on Election Day.
Regardless, expect lawsuits in certain states and the potential for recounts in others. Election Day is far from the end of the election.
Toward the end of November, Biden turns 82.
December: Electoral votes are cast
After questions about the election are settled, states confirm, or ascertain, their statewide results. Electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast electoral votes for their statewide winner.
Nebraska and Maine also allocate some electoral votes by congressional district, and these could be pivotal in a close race.
January: Someone will solemnly swear
The new Congress takes the oath of office on January 3. It’s this new Congress that, in the unlikely event of an Electoral College tie, would settle the election. Each state would get one vote for president in the House of Representatives.
In any event, lawmakers gather on January 6, as everyone should remember from 2020, to count electoral votes. Harris will preside. She could either be the fifth vice president in history to oversee her own Electoral College victory, or the fourth in history to oversee her own Electoral College defeat.
On January 20, 2025, the next president takes the oath of office.
